I outlined North Shore’s personnel in the preview post, and I’ll focus on the match-up here. As always in the playoffs, match-ups make the fight.
What the Mustangs previous matchups can tell us
North Shore’s last game against Ridge Point serves as a good reminder for what Katy experienced in 2018 and 2019. The Mustangs led RP 30-0 early in the second quarter. By the time RP realized what happened, the damage was done. North Shore let off the gas and the final margin of 44-28 flattered the Panthers. The Mustangs opened the offense as wide as it could early to hit big plays and overwhelmed the RP shotgun offense with pressure. RP ran a shotgun offense with an exceptional QB, but had zero run game presence from a running back. They will approach Katy the same way with shock and awe objective early.
To a lesser degree in our last two playoff games against North Shore, the Mustangs jumped out to multiple score leads and forced Katy into an immediate chase mode. Duncanville, North Crowley and DeSoto probably are the only three teams in the state I’d give a chance of erasing a multiple score deficit against North Shore this season. As simply and politely as I can put it, Katy is not built to chase this season (or most seasons outside of a handful I might point to in Katy’s best seasons for offense).
The key to this game
The best template for success Katy can point to is the 2019 regular season game at GPISD when the Tigers beat the great Dematrius Davis class for North Shore (24-21). This is the one time Katy managed to keep the Mustangs under 35 points in this golden era they’ve enjoyed. I strongly believe Katy must hold North Shore to 28 points or less to have a shot.
Keeping the score down is a combination of keeping chains moving on offense, with points at the end of methodical drives, and winning battles at the point of attack on defense. The physically superior team has had the edge in every match-up between these two, and that’s why Katy’s display in the second half against Cy Falls was encouraging and important to me. Katy flipped the script after Cy Falls was the aggressor early and proved it can get physical. The Tigers need to play that way for four quarters.
Katy must establish the run above all else. Basically nothing else I mention in this post matters if the Tigers aren’t able to run the football.
We know what they’re going to do
North Shore is going to defend Katy the same way they always have. It is going to be very aggressive at the point of attack, and they will be difficult to outflank with their speed and aggression off the edge. Katy will need to find gaps between the tackles for more of the quick hitting and direct style runs. Playaction (and regular dropbacks) must be very well-timed, executed, and designed to avoid taking huge losses.
Officiating is going to be important. If North Shore is allowed to grab and mug Katy’s receivers on the perimeter as we’ve seen in the past and this season (Jordan and many other opponents), it will be almost impossible for Katy to pass. The Cy Falls game was one of the only times this season I’ve seen a crew tighten up on those calls. Jordan flat out tackled Katy players on playaction passes and got away with it. Trust me when I tell you North Shore’s secondary doesn’t need the help of being allowed to be more physical than they already are. They have one, possibly two, future NFL first round draft picks. Sanchez and Calicut wipe out half the field- legit no fly zones. Tight ends and fullbacks have to help Katy in the pass game this week.
The Mustang Offense
Defensively, Katy must be dialed into to North Shore’s formations/packages and recognize when they change QBs from Bailey to Maryland to Thomas. With Bailey, it will be a more traditional, deliberate spread approach. He is patient (sometimes overly so) in the pocket and his technique will break down if he feels pressure. He has a tendency to mark arm throws (flicks) off-platform under duress. The tempo speeds up with Maryland and it turns into more of a zone read offense. The pass game is kept short, simple, and quick though he has improved going downfield. With Thomas, they are overtly going wildcat and running.
The Mustang offense has a variety of tools and this game will be about Katy defenders doing their jobs and not trying to overcompensate for their buddy. This will be the most challenging game of the year for the secondary (unless Katy faces Duncanville at state). North Shore’s receivers have tremendous catching and yards after catch ability. Katy must be ready to close space when the ball goes up and hit the Mustang receivers hard as the ball hits their hands.
Play by design
People love to complain about the cushion Katy gives, but that’s by design. The objective is to keep things in front of you in the zone and react decisively/aggressively to close space and tackle as soon as the ball goes up. The reaction part is the key in Katy’s scheme. The issue Katy defensive backs run into is not effectively closing the space and tackling. If this gets compounded by poor positioning and getting beat over the top, it’s a really long day.
Katy’s defensive line must gain an advantage over the North Shore OL so the Tiger defense is able to get the QB off-platform and keep Hardeman and Thomas from going nuts in the ground game. Delayed pressure from Katy linebackers will be important when North Shore goes to its spread formations. I call these the tsunami waves in the Katy defense, and I know it’s working well when I see them.
Katy gaining a physicality edge on the offensive and defensive lines is going to determine whether the Tigers make this a game through the fourth quarter with a fighting chance for victory. North Shore has the talent, speed, and recruiting stars edge full stop. They can have the Underwear Olympian trophy. Katy’s edge must be sound execution and physicality in every phase.
