It is mid-November and the Tigers will start the 2024 6A Division 1 State Playoffs against old frenemy from way back in my day, Elsik. 20-6A had a crazy last regular season week materialize giving 2-8 Elsik the nod for the fourth playoff spot. Katy obviously is an overwhelming favorite out of the gate, but a quick look at Region 3 reveals just how short lived that will be for the Tigers given the overall strength of the bracket. The Region 3 Division 1 bracket is loaded. Overall, 11 out of our top 15 state ranked teams at TNG landed in the Division 1 bracket including all of the top five.
Starting from the second round, all bets are off in the gauntlet that is Region 3. In Division 1, Regions 1 and 3 are by far the most competitive overall.
Where the Tigers Stand
In terms of scoring, Katy rates as the #6 adjusted scoring defense in the state and #21 in adjusted scoring offense. The defensive number puts Katy up near the level we typically see from a region/state contending team in the playoffs. The offensive scoring metric is not at the same level, but it isn’t terrible either. The biggest match-up issue on paper is that two of the top five adjusted scoring defenses in the state, North Shore and Atascocita, potentially stand in Katy’s path out of the region. North Shore’s defensive metrics are on a historically elite level in terms of our model data.
The question for Katy in that kind of game, with a non-elite scoring offense, will be whether or not it can play efficiently/effectively enough to score the points it would need to win. It’s a team effort of course and there are many factors determining success, but if I were to point at one thing it would be whether Katy can dial in and play well enough to eliminate the inefficiencies we’ve seen with turnovers (offense and special teams) and three-and-out possessions. The bright side for Katy is if the team proves to have the extra gear and gets out of Region 3, it can beat anyone left.
What needs to happen
In order for Katy to give itself the best chance at advancing through this bracket, it will take the coaches and players dialing in to whatever this team’s A plus level is in every game they are fortunate enough to play from this week forward and try to leave it on the field. All you can ask/hope for as a team is to fulfill whatever the potential in the group is and empty the tank, but most importantly to give yourself the best chance to do so by eliminating self-inflicted errors.
The margin for error gets smaller as the bracket gets cut in half each week. We’ve seen this consistently in recent seasons at Katy and for as long as I’ve been following Texas high school football. And if we concede Katy isn’t the most physically talented team in the bracket, the previous point on error margin is enhanced exponentially. The most important attribute a team can have this time of year is the ability to get out of its own way.
Duncanville, North Crowley, North Shore, Atascocita, Westlake and Allen, among others, have phenomenal teams this season and all of them are on the same dance floor as Katy contending for the crown. We’ve seen historically dominant runs from Duncanville and North Shore since 2018.
The gauntlet ahead
This Katy team faces one of the most daunting playoff challenges I have ever seen a Tiger group lined up against since I started paying attention to Katy football around 1992. Show up, bring your friends, and be as loud and supportive as you can be to lift these players up. They are going to need every bit of encouragement and old-school Katy we can give them in the stands. Katy finds itself back in the land of giants that Bill Jatzlau talked about during the 1994 run to the state championship game.
Katy made its name as a program by doing the unexpected and punching above its weight. It feels a bit like a full circle moment having seen the Katy program progress from upstart to perennial powerhouse and now finding itself once again in a situation where it is a decided underdog against teams that are too fast and too good for little ol’ Katy.
I’ll conclude with my favorite Mike Johnston playoff quote from the 1998 highlight video. “Yeah, they’ve got talent. I’ve been telling you about it. The newspaper’s been writing it up – all that kind of crap. Talent doesn’t win in the state playoffs. In the state playoffs, the best team wins, period.”
So, let’s see what kind of TEAM these Katy Tigers can be and maybe we’ll see some Katy magic along the way. GO TIGERS.
